The present exemplary embodiments relate to pervasive model adaptation in production systems. In such systems, automated model adaptation of system performance and component status can advantageously aid in improving productivity, identifying faulty or underperforming resources, scheduling repair or maintenance, etc. Accurate model adaptation requires information about the true condition of components in the production system. Such information can be obtained directly from sensors associated with individual components and/or may be inferred from a limited number of sensor readings within the production system using a model or other knowledge of the system structure and dynamics. Providing complete sensor coverage for all possible system faults can be expensive or impractical in harsh production environments, and thus it is generally preferable to instead employ model adaptation procedures to infer the source of faults detected or suspected from limited sensors.
System model adaptation information is typically gathered by one of two methods, including dedicated or explicit model adaptation with the system being exercised while holding production to perform tests and record observations without attaining any production, as well as passive model adaptation in which information is gathered from the system sensors during normal production. Although the latter technique allows inference of some information without disrupting production, the regular production mode may not sufficiently exercise the system to provide adequate model adaptation information to improve long term productivity. Moreover, while dedicated model adaptation operation generally provides better information than passive model adaptation, the cost of this information is high in terms of short term productivity reduction, particularly when diagnosing recurring intermittent system component failures that require repeated model adaptation interventions.
Conventional production model adaptation systems are thus largely unable to adequately yield useful model adaptation information without halting production and incurring the associated costs of system down-time, and are therefore of limited utility in achieving long term system productivity. Accordingly, there exists a need for improved control systems and techniques by which both long term and short term productivity goals can be achieved in production systems having only limited sensor deployment.